Weak Trips

Strategy & Advice by Krusherlaw Posted
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5 Comments

This hand came up in my $.50/$1 home game.

I am in the big blind with 10-4.

V is sb. We both have more than $100. V is an inexperienced tight player.

Two limpers and Blinds call. Pot=$4.

Flop is J-10-x. Checks around.

Turn is J-10-x 10.

V bets $10 into a $4 pot.

Do I call, raise or fold?

Comments

  1. In my experience, n00b players almost never bet draws, so KQ and 98 are out. They also like to get cutesy with big pairs, so AA, KK and QQ are possible, despite the preflop limp. Unfortunately, so are hands like JJ, AT, and JT. This is a way ahead/way behind scenario IMO. As played, I probably just call.

  2. Worst option is folding, but that is not to imply you have a monster. Inexperienced tight player's range includes any Jack-x hand (slow-played top pair on flop). Might also include K-Q, Q-9, and 9-8 hands. Or hands like 8-8 (this medium to low strength hands are somewhat player dependent. A tight player might not bet them, but an inexperienced player might mis-value them).

    Given this, it is hardly clear you are behind. In fact, I expect you'd be ahead here well more than 50% of the time (unless you know opponent has a tell about over betting monsters). But raising because you are more than 50% likely to be ahead also strikes me as a problematic. Your raise will be mostly called by hands that beat you (and perhaps a few strong Jacks, but not enough to make this play worthwhile). So, keep his weaker hands alive and keep the pot small for those times you are beat. Call and re-assess on the river. The pot will be about $25. If the Villain bets pot on the river, you have a tough call and I might lean towards folding unless you have a specific bet sizing tell on this person. If Villain bets 2/3 of pot or less, I go ahead and call unless (again) I have a specific read on this opponent. Smaller bets might be blocking bets with a Jack, so that is why I am more inclined to call smaller bets.

  3. Fold! It's doubtful any limper would have paid $1 to enter the pot with a 10 - 4 kicker. Is he bluffing with the trips? Kiss your $1 good by. It will cost too much to call and find out for sure.

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  5. call easy

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