3 Sets Flopped

Strategy & Advice by soonerprices Posted

I am next to the button holding 22. UTG (200 behind) bets $10, 3rd UTG (90 behind) calls, I call, button calls (200 behind) and small blind (has everyone covered) calls. Flop comes 10 8 5 rainbow.

Small blind checks. UTG bets 35, 3rd UTG goes all in, I fold, button goes all in, small blind goes all in. UTG tanks. Says one of you guys has to have the hand that beats me. Tanks some more. Folds.

4 on the turn Q on the river. 3rd UTG shows 55, Button shows TT, and small blind shows J9 (I know right).

There was a quad deuces beat Bad Beat (quad deuces or better loses and the bad beat is paid). $59K. rules; both players must play both hole cards, $30 in the pot and the hand must be played to the river (neither hand can fold).

Questions: Is it worth the call (around $150) from UTG (holding 88) for a chance at the bad beat beat? (i believe the loser get 40-50%, winner get around 25% and table splits the rest


  1. I'm not going to comment on whether or not he should be folding 88 here bc that's a tough fold for anyone to make but it's definitely not worth it to call $150 for any kind of bad beat jackpot in that spot. He would need back to back one outers to hit (he make quads on the turn and someone else make quads on the river). For $150 to call for a chance to get ~$30k that means he's getting laid ~200:1 odds. The odds of back to back one outers is far greater than 200:1 (about 1900:1 if my math is right but that's not my strong suit). Now, if it was the turn and the board was T85T and he knew his opponent had quad tens then it would be worth it to call $150 to try to hit an 8 for $30k bc he's getting 200:1 odds on a 45:1 shot.

  2. Rigged. That shit never happens online.

  3. Seem like it's never even worth considering unless you are 100% sure that you hit the jackpot of you get there. That aside, it sounds like a profitable call to me. Just a very high risk and expensive one

  4. if the player with 88 knows for sure he is up against JJor TT, then the odds for him hitting
    the bad beat are 989:1

  5. @zzyzx sorry, the above post should read: if the the player with 88 knows he is up against
    TT, then the odds for him hitting the bad beat are 989:1

    sure would be nice to be able to edit posts in table talk

  6. @zzyzx Just wondering as math isn't my strongest suit in situations like this- how do you come up with 989:1 vs TT. I assume that it has to come exactly T on turn then 8 on river for quads vs quads or 8 on turn then T on river. Just wondering what math you're using

  7. @BentonBlakeman a 5 would also be a profitable card for 88. A five would give the third set quads and another T or 8 would hit the bad beat.

  8. @BentonBlakeman the math is as follows: we know 7 cards, if the player with 88 knows for
    sure the other plays has pocket tens. for the jackpot to be alive, a T or an 8 must hit on the
    turn (2 outs/45 cards). on the river there is only 1 out/44 cards. since both events must occur, the probability is (2/45)*(1/44), which converts to 989:1 odds.

  9. @zzyzx right. I got 1900 bc I was thinking back to back one outers (45x44) but the first one is actually a two outer- a ten or an eight, so 45 divided by 2 times 44. Thanks.

  10. @soonerprices right, so a 5 would give them outs to an 8 on the river as a 10 would hit the bad beat but the 88 would just be getting a table share so we shouldn't really be counting that. But now we can do the math a little different but it gets more complex bc if a 5 hits turn now we lose out on winning the big portion of the bad beat with 88. Long and short of it is that calling $150 on the flop just to try to win the bad beat is a negative EV play based on the odds. Calling on the turn once a T (or maybe even a 5) hits would be profitable to try to bink the one outer 8.

  11. @BentonBlakeman no, quad 8 over quad 5 hits the bad beat as well. The winning hand still wins about 15K of the 59k

  12. @soonerprices there is no "profitable" call for $150 on the flop for the player with 88,
    even if he knows the other player has a set of fives. yes, the odds do improve for quads
    over quads with another set introduced into the equation, but not enough to justify a call
    on the flop by 88.

    in the long run, bad beat jackpots, especially large ones that can also trigger tax implications,
    are BAD for poker.