Top Teo Pair

Strategy & Advice by Krusherlaw Posted
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11 Comments

This is a hand which came up in a $1/3 nlhe game at the Horseshoe Baltimore.

I have 9/10 (not suited). I have about $800.

V is two seats to my left on the button. We have played together for about an hour. I haven't seen him show any hands so not much of a read on him. He has about $500.

A player in early position raises to $15. 2 callers to me, I call. V calls.

Pot= $70
Flop 10 9 3 (two diamonds.)

Checks to me and I bet $35. V raises to $105.

Do I call raise or fold?

Comments

  1. I'm assuming the players to your right folded leaving just you and V. Folding is not an option in my eyes at this point. Looking at his range it's possible you are behind but highly unlikely. My play would be to call and fire a pot size bet when the turns a blank. If he has a set of 3's you will find out when he shoves on you. More likely he is playing two high diamonds or maybe an open ended straight draw. I'll wait and see how it turned out.

  2. Agree that folding is the worst option, by far. But I also don't love the option of calling. Here is why: (1) If I read this correctly, Villain has position on us for the rest of the hand; (2) If we just call, the pot will be $280 ($70 pre-flop plus two $105 bets on the flop); my point here is that, starting the hand with effective stacks of $500 each, we are either already pot committed or one bet away from being pot committed. Heck, a pot sized turn bet is essentially for what would be left in your effective stacks. (3) If the turn brings a diamond, any 8 any 7, any 6, any Jack, any Queen, or any King, we have to start worrying that we just lost to a straight or flush draw. That is 9 diamonds plus 27 non-Diamond straight cards that we have to worry about. While it is true that a seven is not as scary as an eight, as an example, any of these cards (combined with an opponent bet), will give us pause. Our opponent, holding A-A, might bet the turn when one of these many scare cards arrives. We might end up folding, not because we are behind, but because the hand becomes potentially less and less clear on the turn. Since we are very likely either ahead here OR racing with odds against either a simple draw (straight or flush) OR racing closer to even money either way against a combo draw.... let's just get the money in, getting better than even money if called... and hope for the best.

  3. I would actually c/r on the flop. But having bet out, I would min raise V to $175, and see what V do on the turn/river, with the intent to fold to large bet and call a small river bet.

  4. Call and evalutE turn. Keep pot small if a bad card hits

  5. Some of my play here is read dependent. I just can't imagine this particular player making a move like this with a draw. Perhaps he had A-10 but given the amount of his raise he is willing to commit with deep stacks this looked a lot like a set of 3's that wanted to price out flush draws and straight draws. I decided to fold. As I folded I said I am going to make a big laydown, top two pair. V said, "give me $5 and I'll show you." I did not give him the $5. Most players will show the bluff if you let them know they made a big laydown so I am pretty sure I made the right play.

    There is already $200 in the pot. If I call there is $270. At this point with top two pair I will be pot committed. Min raising is even worse, he doesn't fold any cards in his range to a min raise and it makes me even more committed.

    I am also not sure what a scary turn card would be. Unless I hit a 9 or 10 on the turn I have the exact same decision on the turn for a much larger amount of money.

  6. Some of my play here is read dependent. I just can't imagine this particular player making a move like this with a draw. Perhaps he had A-10 but given the amount of his raise he is willing to commit with deep stacks this looked a lot like a set of 3's that wanted to price out flush draws and straight draws. I decided to fold. As I folded I said I am going to make a big laydown, top two pair. V said, "give me $5 and I'll show you." I did not give him the $5. Most players will show the bluff if you let them know they made a big laydown so I am pretty sure I made the right play.

    There is already $200 in the pot. If I call there is $270. At this point with top two pair I will be pot committed. Min raising is even worse, he doesn't fold any cards in his range to a min raise and it makes me even more committed.

    I am also not sure what a scary turn card would be. Unless I hit a 9 or 10 on the turn I have the exact same decision on the turn for a much larger amount of money.

  7. The min-raise isn't to fold out hands, it's to define V's hand better to make turn/river easier to play.

    Folding is a bit premature. There are still many hands you are beating a good V could have raised you with - AT, JJ, AdQd, AdJd, AdTx, TdXd, 9dXd, 3dXd, etc. There are only three hands you are behind (33, TT, 99 though last two less lightly since you have T9).

    The problem with flatting, since you represented top pair betting out, is that he could still fire a half-pot+ semi-bluff (or in his mind value with AT, JJ) bet on turn with those hands and you will have another tough decision so it gains you little information.

    Why are you pot-committed if you reraise and put another $140 in? There are still $310 (V's remaining stack) to be played and you covered. There's no rule that said once you have X amount in the pot, you can't fold even if you are beat.

  8. @thamster As played If I minraise to $140 and V shoves all in (or bets all in on the turn) then there is > $600 in the pot and $310 to call. In order to fold my read that he has a big hand has to be correct 3x as often as I am wrong in order to make folding profitable. This is a much harder and much more expensive decision then I have now.

    Also, if I minraise and V calls what do I do on the turn (assuming I don't improve)? If I check, unless V is an idiot he will shove any turn. A minraise basically turns my hand face up.

    If I minraise now there is no way I am not getting all in by the river, I like a shove much better than a min raise.

  9. @Krusherlaw

    "If I minraise to $140 and V shoves all in (or bets all in on the turn)"

    Then you fold and thank him for letting you know your two pair is likely beat. Not many (good) 1/3 players will shove with just a draw when the flop has been 3-bet. And if he shows you his draw then make a note and exploit his tendency to way overplay draws.

    "If I check, unless V is an idiot he will shove any turn. A minraise basically turns my hand face up."

    Why? What do you think he thinks you have? You are now repping 2P to a set. His initial read that you only have top pair is now wrong. If he's on a good draw he's going to want to see a free card and see if he can improve to beat your range of 2P to sets (and avoid being check-raised off his draw). He can only shove if he has you beat because he has little fold equity against 2P to sets.

  10. @Krusherlaw Personally I don't like the fold, but if you min reraised and then folded to a shove I would go to sleep crying into my pillow tonight. That's essentially like turning your hand into a bluff which would be miserable. But his range has to be wider than just the three hands that beat you so I still prefer calling and evaluating the turn before deciding to dump your hand.

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