folding top set?

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Q910 flop; holding pocket queens.
Check raised and it's obvious they've slipped the nuts.

Are you ever folding top set? Knowing they've flipped the nut straight?

Comments

  1. It's going to depend about the villain style bro. Lets say and example that he's a tight player, then he got the nuts. Be always careful counting how many hands he's playing. In fact I mean, all depends about who are you playing against with

  2. No. I'm shipping it. Pure cooler for you if he has KJ, for him if he has 99 or TT.

  3. What are the stack sizes? How did the betting go? How big was the check raise? What pot odds are we getting at this point? Without knowing answers to those sorts of questions, there is no good way to give you a complete answer, but I;ll lay out the math below and illustrate why you should almost never fold top set.

    If your opponent flopped the nut straight with an open ended straight flush re-draw, you are a 70-30 underdog and if he could have any K-J combination, then you are a 65-35 underdog. So, if you knew that this particular opponent could only be holding the nuts, then you could theoretically find a fold to a really big bet.

    The problem is, unless you are both regulars in a game and you know the player extremely well, then you can't be 100% certain that he will be check-raising with only the nuts. As zzjitterzz pointed out, he could have 9-9 or 10-10 in his range. Even adding just those 2 hands, makes you a slight favorite versus his range (51-49, but still a favorite). If the villain is capable of making a check raise with 2 pair, then you are almost 70-30 favorite against his range. If you add in a hand like J-10 or Q-J for a pair plus an open ended draw, then you are more than a 70-30 favorite. So, without a near perfect read on your opponent, you should not be folding top set on the flop.

    Dave

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